Did Donald Trump Actually Endorse Mark Carney, or Is Everyone Playing 4D Chess?

Last night, in a Fox News interview, Laura Ingraham asked President Trump about Canada’s newly-unelected Prime Minister, Mark Carney. His response quickly became a top Canadian headline, and eager politicians like Pierre Poilievre didn’t hesitate to splice his comments and use them in an all-around game of 4D chess.

The simplest answer to the question (which has become more of a false accusation) of if Trump endorsed Mark Carney as PM of Canada last night is no — at least not in the way it’s being made to sound. In an interview on The Ingraham Angle, Trump talked extensively about Canada. When asked about the trade deficit the US shares with Canada and China, Trump responded: “Canada is way over 100 [billion dollars]…here’s my problem with Canada: Canada was meant to be the 51st state, because we subsidize Canada by 200 billion dollars a year. We don’t need their cars, we don’t need their lumber…we don’t need their energy, we don’t need anything. We certainly don’t want their automobiles. They make a lot of auto — millions of automobiles are sent in…” When asked why he seems to be tougher on Canada than on adversarial countries, he said, “Look, I deal with every country, indirectly or directly. One of the nastiest countries to deal with is Canada. The people that — now, this was Trudeau…good old Justin — I call him ‘Governor Trudeau.’ He was — his people were nasty, and they weren’t telling the truth. They never told the truth…they’d say ‘well, we don’t charge.’ Well, they do. They charge tremendous. They charge tremendous, and if you look at dairy products, what they’ve done to our farmers…[the farmers] would always complain about Canada, how they get ripped off. Did you know that Canada has a 250% tariff?..They charge us numbers that are crazy. We have a very big deficit with Canada…We subsidize Canada. And I like Canada. I love Canada…”

Ingraham interjected, “The Liberal Party is going to win now in the next election most likely…they were down and out–”

“I don’t care,” Trump replied. “I don’t care.”

“– isn’t that going to make them more hostile to us–“

“No, I’d rather deal with a Liberal than a Conservative…the Conservative that’s running is stupidly no friend of mine. I don’t know him, but he’s said negative things. So when he says negative things, I couldn’t care less. I think it’s easier to deal, actually, with a Liberal. And maybe they are going to win. But I don’t really care. It doesn’t matter to me at all.” Trump then continued to discuss further the trade deficit, his desire for Canada to be a state, Canada’s lack of required defence spending, and the Canadian government’s negotiation tactics.

Immediately, Canadian media and politicians clipped Trump’s statements and ran with them. “And with that, Donald Trump endorses Mark Carney because Pierre Poilievre isn’t nice enough to him,” Toronto Sun columnist Brian Lilley announced on X. “Last night, President Donald Trump endorsed Mark Carney,” Pierre Poilievre posted. “Why? Because, as Trump said, he’s ‘easier’ to deal with, and knows that I will be a tough negotiator and always put Canada First. Carney is weak and would cave to Trump’s demands, just like he did when he moved his company headquarters from Canada to New York City. Canadians don’t want a weak and conflicted leader. They want a strong Prime Minister who will put Canada First.” However, polling does not seem to reflect Poilievre’s sentiments. In a complete 180 from polling mere months ago, the Liberal Party now leads the Conservative Party, with a possibility even of a majority government.

Regardless of that, it’s clear from watching the interview between Trump and Ingraham that Trump did not explicitly endorse Mark Carney. He was clearly speaking from his own perspective as both a world leader and a businessman. In his eyes, Carney appears much more preferable to deal with than Pierre Poilievre, and of course Justin Trudeau.

There could be different reasons for this. One is that Trump views Carney as a weak leader who cannot negotiate well and will just give Trump whatever he wants, as Poilievre implied. Other theories circulating on social media indicate that perhaps it’s more complicated than that. Perhaps Trump is playing 4D chess and is actually trying to help get Poilievre elected. The hatred for the president is strong in Canada. Liberals can react to Trump’s statements in two different ways: they could either now start supporting Trump because they believe he supports Carney, or they could ditch Carney because they believe he’s working alongside Trump and his goals. Their driving hatred for Trump may drive them directly into the arms of Canada’s current, foremost anti-Trump politician: Pierre Poilievre. The main takeaway question is what sentiment is stronger: Canadians’ hatred for Donald Trump or their hatred for the opposition party?

As you can tell, this is a very complex situation. If we execute Occam’s Razor, which states that the explanation involving the least amount of assumptions is typically the correct one, the higher likelihood is that Trump believes Poilievre is a losing candidate because he doesn’t embrace Trump-style politics or campaigns. This would obviously be true for any US candidate, evidenced by the weight that a Trump endorsement there can hold. On top of that, Trump sees that the Liberal Party is a weak party and that Carney is a compromised candidate. In December 2024, in light of the looming tariffs, Carney supported a move of the Brookfield Asset Management (an investment firm he chaired at the time) head office from Canada to the US, demonstrating he’s not as Canada First as he wants people to think. Therefore, Trump may view Carney as easily manipulated and pushed around. Out of the two, Trump potentially believes he has a higher chance of getting what he wants from Mark Carney than from Pierre Poilievre.

Maybe Trump isn’t the only one playing this game of 4D chess. Poilievre is also clearly using Trump’s statements for his political gain. With his “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” messaging, he’s essentially saying, “You hate Trump? Well, Trump likes Carney. So you should hate Carney too.” It’s yet to be seen how Carney will react to these games. As of now, he’s taken a very different approach to handling Trump and the tariffs. He’s opted to be more diplomatic and less antagonizing towards Trump than his predecessor did. Canadian Ambassador to the US Kirsten Hillman said on Sunday that Carney is looking to speak with Trump “as soon as possible” and that he wishes for a “good and solid relationship.” She added that Carney “respects” Trump’s economic goals for the US. It’s hard to dispute at this point that Carney’s attitude in these negotiations will likely serve Canada better than Trudeau’s and Ford’s have so far.

So in summary, Trump clearly did not suggest that Canadians vote for Mark Carney. Politically-savvy Canadians know that Carney will be a disaster for the country if he’s elected with a majority government. However, there seems to be some very intricate and complex political games being played by Poilievre, Carney, and Trump. Only a general election will begin to determine who played the game better.

Cover Photo Generated by Grok AI