Just two days after launching an attack on Iran’s three key nuclear sites, President Trump has announced a Middle Eastern ceasefire between the two warring countries of Israel and Iran. Despite all the fear-mongering and proclamations of an imminent “World War III” from right-wing social media influencers, it appears that deescalation may be occurring in this highly volatile situation.
The US president had found himself at the centre of a split in the MAGA base this past weekend as the alliance previously formed between the Trump loyalists and the right-leaning libertarian independents began to split. United by their desire to see a complete and total end to all foreign wars and US involvement, these groups collectively helped carry Trump across the finish line last November. But then a divide started to emerge, rooted in an isolationist worldview and a deep-seated distrust (and for some even, hatred) for Israel. This divide was highlighted by Saturday’s controversial attacks on Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan — Iran’s three key nuclear sites.
For years, the US and its allies have suspected Iran of developing a nuclear weapon that they would inevitably use against their enemies. To prevent that from happening, Barrack Obama negotiated the Iran nuclear deal (formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) during his second term, which, among many things, would cap Iran’s uranium stockpile at 3.67%. (For context, in 2016, Obama’s White House stated that Iran possessed a stockpile of uranium large enough to create 8-10 nuclear bombs.) Unfortunately, this deal failed to secure several key guarantees. Namely, it neglected to address Iran’s ballistic missile programs and allowed them to build up funding for military groups and terrorist organizations. The Trump administration also accused Iran in an official 2018 White House release of violating European law by counterfeiting Yemen’s currency to destabilize the region with the help of the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), Iran’s military force. The US administration also declared the JCPOA to have been negotiated in bad faith after Israeli intelligence revealed that Iran was being dishonest and non-transparent about their nuclear developments. For these reasons, Trump pulled the US out of the JCPOA in 2018 and instead introduced increased sanctions on Iran. After this time, Iran continued to enrich their uranium, bringing the threat of a nuclear weapon closer to reality.
Following his landslide win, Trump decided it was time to come to the table with Iran to put in writing a new deal. On April 12, Trump sent a letter to the Ayatollah, presenting him with a 60-day deadline to reach a nuclear deal with the United States, reportedly threatening consequences if they failed to strike one within that time. After no deal was proposed by June 11, the set expiration date, Israel attacked Iran and killed some of their top generals in a devastating blow to Khamenei. This launched what Trump is now referring to as the “12 Day War,” with Israel and Iran trading missile strikes (of which Israel intercepted many through their Iron Dome defence system). Dynamics shifted on Saturday, however, when Trump announced that American B-2’s had dropped six Massive Ordnance Penetrators on three of Iran’s underground nuclear sites, and they were now safely on their way back to Missouri after a “very successful attack.” He touted the success further in a 10pm press conference and proclaimed that “now is the time for peace.”
Immediately following this news, the members of the right-leaning indecent faction — specifically several who identify more with the Libertarian Party than the Republican Party but had found some common ground with the MAGA movement — took to X to bemoan their beliefs that Trump was gearing up to start World War III. Libertarian comedian Dave Smith, who had earlier that week apologized for supporting Trump and called him a “criminal” who should be impeached, said in a very strange statement: “Donald Trump has now launched an illegal war of aggression against Iran. The risk of an absolute catastrophe is very high and the benefits are non existent. Worst of all, he did it on behalf of a foreign government against a country who posed no threat to us.” Representative Thomas Massie (R-KY) joined his Democrat counterparts in labelling Trump’s actions as “not Constitutional,” despite the fact that war was never entered with Iran and no past president has needed to declare war before carrying out a surprise attack on an enemy country via executive authority (if an imminent threat is posed). Many others joined the fray in turning against the man they had ardently supported and lobbied for just months prior, accusing him of breaking his “no new wars” promise.
This afternoon, however, Trump seemingly proved them wrong when he posted on Truth Social that a ceasefire had been reached: “CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, ‘THE 12 DAY WAR.’ This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!” Just hours before, Iran had launched a strike against the largest US military base in Qatar to attempt to save face, evidenced by the fact that Qatar and the US reportedly were reportedly warned of the attack ahead of time to minimize casualties and avoid escalation. Almost all of the missiles were intercepted, with one being off course and let go.
Despite conflicting reports from both Iranian media propaganda and US media propaganda, it appears that Iran has confirmed the ceasefire via a social media post from Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi. “The military operations of our powerful Armed Forces to punish Israel for its aggression continued until the very last minute, at 4am. Together with all Iranians, I thank our brave Armed Forces who remain ready to defend our dear country until their last drop of blood, and who responded to any attack by the enemy until the very last minute.” These brutal missile barrages by Iran (which continued right up to and even somewhat beyond the official start time of the ceasefire) resulted in multiple Israeli casualties. Israel is claiming violation and has launched a forceful attack on Tehran and other Iranian locations. Trump expressed irritation towards both sides at this series of events: “We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f-ck they’re doing.” (This situation is still rapidly developing.)
As we’ve seen over the weekend, the anti-war sentiment still holds fast in the MAGA movement as a whole, evidenced by the immense backlash to Saturday’s bombing. However, Trump has consistently stated over the last decade that Iran cannot be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon; and as I stated in an X post on Saturday, “It is in the spirit of ‘America First’ to keep your enemies from possessing weapons with catastrophic capabilities that will inevitably be used against you one day.” Iran is a historical adversary to the US, and the destruction of its nuclear sites was in the best interest of America and her allies. I trust that the US president will keep his promises and avoid foreign war at all costs while still maintaining American security and dominance.
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